'We must be clear eyed about the dangers that are building up in the world'
Another impressive and chilling address this time from Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, responding to Trump's Liberation Day tariffs.
Lawrence Wong has set out here the risks of the Trump’s Liberation Day strategy, which is to impose blanket tariffs and then encourage leaders from every country to traipse to Washington (or to the golf club in Florida) to kiss the ring and bend the knee.
Wong’s video address explains the risks of the world trade order being decimated and replaced with bilateral uncertainty. He talks about the disorder, the uncertainty, and the international security ramifications. The Prime Minister even invokes the historical lessons of the 1930s, and how the hot war of 1939 was preceded by a trade war.
The era of rules-based globalisation and free trade is over. We are entering a new phase – one that is more arbitrary, protectionist, and dangerous. Here is an excerpt:
The likelihood of a full-blown global trade war is growing.
The impact of the higher tariffs, plus the uncertainty of what countries may do next, will weigh heavily on the global economy. International trade and investments will suffer, and global growth will slow.
Singapore will take a bigger hit than others, because of our heavy reliance on trade.
The last time the world experienced something like this was in the 1930s. Trade wars escalated into armed conflict, and eventually the Second World War.
No one can say how the current situation will unfold in the coming months or years.
But we must be clear-eyed about the dangers that are building up in the world.
Read the whole speech below. It is less combative than the Canadian Prime Minister’s speech I highlighted yesterday, but it has a similar clear-spoken sense of sombre warning. Definitely worth a read.
Best wishes
Tony
Australian readers mostly know that I’ve made a film! it’s called ‘Ange & The Boss - Puskas in Australia’ and it’s enjoyed a tearaway independent release across the country over the last month. We’re still in cinemas in Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide, and there’s a big Q&A tonight at the Nova, possibly the last one for a while. We head to Hungary from 21st April for the Papa International Historical Film Festival.
Here are me and the kids, doing a promo video from Dennis Station. All tickets and session times at angeandtheboss.com
Lawrence Wong: 'The likelihood of a fully blown trade war is growing', Implications of Liberation Day tariffs - 2025
4 April 2025, Singapore
My fellow Singaporeans, I’ve said before that the world is changing – in ways that will disadvantage small open economies like Singapore.
Some had previously questioned this assessment.
But the recent “Liberation Day” announcement by the US leaves no room for doubt.
It marks a seismic change in the global order. The era of rules-based globalisation and free trade is over. We are entering a new phase – one that is more arbitrary, protectionist, and dangerous.
For decades, the US was the bedrock for the free market economies of the world.
It championed free trade, and led efforts to build a multilateral trading system, anchored by clear rules and norms, where countries could achieve win-win benefits through trade.
This WTO system brought unprecedented stability and prosperity to the world, and to the US itself.
To be clear, the system is not perfect. Singapore, and many others, have long called for reform – to update the rules and to make the system better. But what the US is doing now is not reform. It is abandoning the entire system it had created.
Its new approach of reciprocal tariffs, country by country, is a complete rejection of the WTO framework.
The US has placed Singapore in the lowest base tier – with a tariff of 10%. So the direct impact on us may be limited – for now. But there are wider and more profound consequences. If other countries adopt the same approach as the US – abandoning the WTO, and trading only on their own preferred terms, country by country – it will spell trouble for all nations, especially small ones like Singapore.
We risk being squeezed out, marginalised and left behind.
We can also expect a strong global response to America’s tariffs.
Singapore has decided not to impose retaliatory tariffs. But other countries may not exercise the same restraint.
The likelihood of a full-blown global trade war is growing.
The impact of the higher tariffs, plus the uncertainty of what countries may do next, will weigh heavily on the global economy. International trade and investments will suffer, and global growth will slow.
Singapore will take a bigger hit than others, because of our heavy reliance on trade.
The last time the world experienced something like this was in the 1930s. Trade wars escalated into armed conflict, and eventually the Second World War.
No one can say how the current situation will unfold in the coming months or years.
But we must be clear-eyed about the dangers that are building up in the world.
Global institutions are getting weaker; international norms are eroding. More and more countries will act based on narrow self-interest, and use force or pressure to get their way.
This is the harsh reality of our world today.
We will stay vigilant. We will build up our capabilities.
We will strengthen our network of partnerships with like-minded countries.
We are more ready than many other countries, with our reserves, our cohesion, and our resolve.
But we must brace ourselves for more shocks to come. The global calm and stability we once knew will not return anytime soon. We cannot expect that the rules which protected small states will still hold.
I am sharing this with you so that we can all be mentally prepared. So that we will not be caught off guard. Let us not be lulled into complacency. The risks are real. The stakes are high.
The road ahead will be harder. But if we stay resolute and united, Singapore will continue to hold its own in this troubled world.
There is a new episode of the Speakola podcast! It’s with Australian comedy star Sammy J, talking about comedy debates. The format of the podcast is that we talk about a feature speech, and then play the speech. Hopefully we share tips, writing techniques, but also life stories and, sometimes, world history. I’ve done 56 episodes with guests from around the world. Check it out!